How Tour Radar is built.
Tour Radar turns charted matches into coverage-qualified player profiles and public scouting-style signals, not into a pretend all-knowing ranking system.
Source and permission
Source data from the Match Charting Project, used with permission.
Match Charting Project data is used on this site with explicit permission.
Public display of derived Tour Radar profiles and public scouting-style signals on surge.tennis.
Coverage rule
A player only gets a public page after reaching 20 or more charted matches since 2020. The current build covers 81 ATP players and 57 WTA players.
Public pages then add window-level warnings, uncertainty intervals, and reliability grades so a player can be visible without pretending every window is equally stable.
Opponent-strength weighting
Each match is weighted by an internal charted-match Elo built from the point files. Stronger opponents count more than softer ones when Tour Radar aggregates a player profile.
Uncertainty bands
Every available metric now carries a 90% interval and an effective sample size so the public surface can show both the signal and how stable that signal looks.
Reliability grades
Each player window is graded A through D from match volume, opponent diversity, support ratios, and warning flags. Grade D windows stay visible, but the narrative modules are suppressed.
Since 2020
Charted matches from 2020 through 2025.
2020-2025
Last 2 Seasons
Charted matches from 2024 and 2025.
2024-2025
2025 Season
Charted matches from 2025.
2025
Eight public scouting angles.
return-depth-pressure
Return Depth Pressure
How often a player sends returnable balls very deep.
Very deep returns divided by returnable returns from charted matches.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 300+ returnable returns
forehand-intent
Forehand Intent
How often the forehand chooses line-changing or inside patterns.
Down-the-line, inside-out, and inside-in forehands divided by all charted forehand directions.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 500+ charted forehand directions
serve-variety
Serve Variety
How evenly a player spreads first-serve targets across the box.
Normalized Shannon entropy across the six deuce/ad serve target buckets on charted serves.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 300+ charted serves
net-pressure
Net Pressure
How often a player brings points forward.
Net points divided by total points played in charted matches.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 30+ net points and 600+ total points
net-conversion
Net Conversion
How well a player finishes when the point moves forward.
Points won at net divided by charted net points.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 30+ net points
break-point-resistance
Break-Point Resistance
How well a player holds up on serve at break point.
Break-point service points won divided by break points faced on serve.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 20+ break points faced on serve
break-point-attack
Break-Point Attack
How often a player wins return points on break point.
Break-point return points won divided by break points created on return.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 20+ break points on return
first-strike-compression
First-Strike Compression
How often service points are decided inside three shots.
Service points ending in one to three shots divided by all charted service points.
Displayed values are opponent-strength weighted, shrunk toward the active tour-window baseline, and paired with a 90% interval before the percentile is assigned.
Threshold: 300+ charted service points
01
Not every player is covered.
The charted sample is rich, but it is not complete. Tour Radar is deliberately honest about that.
02
Surfaces are uneven.
Hard-court coverage is stronger than grass, especially on the WTA side. Surface cards only appear when there are at least 10 charted matches in the selected window.
03
This is still an MCP-first public layer.
The weighting model is still built from the charted-match dataset rather than a full official results universe. That is why Tour Radar exposes reliability grades and warnings instead of claiming full private-team parity.